Low-carbon power is expected to bend the emissions curve

By Anders Lorenzen

Analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the rise in renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind as well as nuclear energy is to dominate the growth in global power supply over the course of the next three years.  This will curb the emissions impact of greater energy use.

The IEA report found that the share of wind and solar in the power generation mix is expected to rise to 35% in 2025 up from 29% in 2022. This is happening even as electricity demand is rising. Demand is up one percentage point compared to last year and over the course of the next three years is expected to rise by 3%.

The Director of the IEA, Fatih Birol said: “The good news is that renewables and nuclear power are growing quickly enough to meet almost all this additional appetite, suggesting we are close to a tipping point for power sector emissions.”

Climate change is fuelling increased electricity demand

IEA points to climate impacts as one of the key causes of surging electricity demand.  For example, recent heat waves in India caused the highest peak power demand yet in the country, while summer droughts reduced hydropower supplies in Europe.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the charge when it comes to the largest gains in renewable power, with an annual average growth rate of 11.6%. Asia also dominated the growth in demand.

Good news for another low-carbon energy source, nuclear power production, which is predicted to rise 3.6% annually until 2025 with the largest growth to come in the Middle East.

When it comes to gas-fired power the picture was more mixed, as while it was forecast to fall in Europe, it was expected to increase in the Middle East.